In the near term we expect the OPEC +production cuts agreed in december 2019 to limit investment and activity – especially Middle East and Russia – during first half calendar 2020.
Schlumberger (SLB, US$38.35/sh) Q419 earnings release, 2020-01-17
Stockprice
SEC Edgar filings
Industry SIC: 1389 – Oil and Gas field services
Source: Opec monthly oil market report 15 Jan 2020, accessed: 2020-01-17
Source: Westwood Global Energy Group, 2019-04-07, accessed: 2020-01-11
Adeosun of Westwood Global Energy Group projects 2019-2024 spend on FPSO/FLNG of US$30 billion projects. That is over and above the US$19 billion awards for 2019 (of which new build FPSO were US$5billion).
Notable builders include: Samsung Heavy Industries (SHI), Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME). Kvaerner (Equinor’s Johan Castberg). Energean’s Karish-Tanin (TechnipFMC main contractor for US$1.36 billion project) subcontracting to COSCO for hull).
Source: Rice University, Jaffe, Medlock, Soligo, accessed 2020-01-08
Figure 2: Simplified representation of the Resource Envelope
Jaffe describes “proved reserves” as subset of resources defined to be economically recoverable. “Economic recoverable” reserves taken as a subset of those accessible technically that in turn are a subset of resources in place (Jaffe, page 16).
Described differently 3-P reserves tend to associate with “technically recoverable resources”. While 2-P reserves are taken as those of provable and probable reserves determined by geology, technology and cost. Where the probable component is that which is not yet identifed but estimated. (Jaffe, page 16)
Start date: 2024
Located: Rovuma – Mozambique
Train 1 first gas projected at 2024 from the Mamba Straddling and Mamba Non-Straddling fields in area 4 around 100 kms offshore from the Afungi peninsula, Cabo Delgado. 24 wells are expected to be drilled through 1600m water. Gas storage facilities and LNG marine terminal capable of servicing vessels with capacity of 266,000 m3 (Q-max) expected to be built. (source: Standard Bank rovumba report, accessed 2020-01-02)
The project is a joint venture of 70% and 30% (70% portion split 35.7% by each of ExxonMobile and Eni and 28.6% by CNPC and 30% divided equally between Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos, Kogas, and, Galp (source: government data, accessed 2020-01-02)).
Start date: 23rd december 2019
Location: Guyana – Stabroek field
Exxon announced 1st flow from Liza field. Expected to reach 120,000 barrels of oil per day. The FPSO Liza Destiny is moored 190 kms offshore Guyana at depths of between 1500-1900 m where four subsea drill centers support 17 wells. Estimated recoverable resource for Stabroek block is greater than 6 billion oil equivalent barrels. Esso Exploration and Production Guyana are operators with 45% interest, Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd holds 30%, and, CNOOC Nexen Petroleum Limited holds 25%. (source: company published data, accessed 2020-01-02)
Start date: April 2018
Location: BrazilProjected output of 3.06 billion barrels of oil equivalent from the field. Field first discovered in 2010. Field developed using four floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels. A fifth FPSO expected to be installed at the field. Field covers 416 kms2 and located 200 kms off Rio de Janeiro at depth between 1600-2100m. (source: offshore-technology.com, accessed 2020-01-01)
Start date: 2023
Location: Ultrenneye field
First gas projected from first train in 2023 of 6.6 mtpa. Trains 2 and 3 of comparable size to come on line in 2024 bringing potential supply to 19.8 mtpa.
The ownership structure for the project is 60% Novatek, 10% Total, 10% CNPC, 10% CNOOC, and, 10% by a consortium of Mitsui and Jogmec.
